Saturday, December 20, 2008

Altria : How it responds after a 20% drop when the dividend is above 7%

Let's track how Altria has responded this decade when the stock drops 20% and the dividend yield is at least 7%.Altria started this decade on January 1,2000 at 23.56 pre all the spinoffs that took plce with Kraft and Phillip Morris International

The first 20% drop was in February of 2000 at 18.84 ( 23.56 X.8).9 months later at the end of November the stock was 38.19 .That was a gain of 19.35 per share plus a 1.10 per share of dividends for a total gain of 108.55% .Very impressive for only 9 months.

In January 2003 Altria reached a high of 42.09 .In March of 2003 ( 42.09X.8) gave us a price of 33.67 .Altria had a 7.8% dividend yield at that price to fit our parameter. At the end of December of 2003 9 months later the price was 54.42 with a dividend earned of 1.96 . The 22.71 total gain individend and appreciation per share would give you a 67.45% gain

The rest of this decade the dividend yield was NOWHERE near 7%.After the high in May of 2008 of 23.02 a 20% drop whichgae you at least a 7% dividend is a stock price of 18.29 whch hit in October of 2008. 9 months laterwould be July of 2009. Will Altria raise this time like it did in 2000 and 2003? After the December 19 ,2008 close of 15.28, The dividend yield is not only over 7% but is 8.37%

Will history"repeat itself" and the stock rises 108.55% in 9 months like it did in 2000 and 67.45% like it did in 2003? No one knows for sure. But between the end of the year tax selling in 2008 which should subside in the past week and the federal and state governments dependency on tobacco taxes it is safe to assume Altria should be one of the first stocks to"recover".Time as it always does will tell.peace

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